Will AI revive old fossil power plants?

Introduction

The clean-power test for AI is not only about how much electricity data centres use. It is also about what happens when new demand arrives faster than clean energy, transmission lines and storage can be built. One of the clearest warning signs is when utilities postpone the closure of ageing coal or gas plants, restart generators that were expected to retire, or build new fossil capacity primarily to support data-centre growth.

This matters because many of the most optimistic visions of AI abundance assume that advanced computing can help accelerate science, medicine, clean energy and long-term human flourishing. But if AI infrastructure expands by leaning on fossil fallback rather than additional low-carbon power, part of that promise starts to undermine another. The question is not whether AI can create value. It is whether the electricity system can expand fast enough that new digital demand does not lock in years or decades of extra emissions.

Why rapid load growth can outrun clean capacity

Data centres are unusual electricity customers. Large AI facilities can require hundreds of megawatts of power, operate continuously and demand extremely high reliability. A utility may spend years planning generation and grid upgrades, while a hyperscale technology company often wants capacity much sooner.

That mismatch creates a recurring problem. Renewable energy projects, transmission lines and grid interconnections frequently face long permitting and construction delays. When a utility is confronted with immediate demand growth, existing fossil plants become the easiest source of dependable power.

Reuters reported in late 2024 that utilities across several regions were adding gas generation and delaying fossil-plant retirements as data-centre demand accelerated. In some cases, technology companies continued to sign renewable energy agreements while the physical grid serving their facilities remained dependent on existing fossil generation.[Reuters]reuters.comData-center reliance on fossil fuels may delay cleanData-center reliance on fossil fuels may delay clean…November 26, 2024 — 26 Nov 2024 — Utilities add gas plants, delay retireme…Published: November 26, 2024

This is why critics focus on the difference between contractual clean energy and actual system outcomes. A company may buy renewable energy credits or sign a power-purchase agreement for a distant wind farm, yet the local grid operator may still keep gas turbines or coal units online because total electricity demand has risen.

The key question is additionality: did AI demand cause more clean generation to be built than would otherwise have existed, or did it increase dependence on existing fossil infrastructure?

Retired and delayed-retirement plants as warning signs

The strongest evidence of fossil fallback is not found in sustainability reports. It appears when utilities explicitly delay plant closures.

Several investigations and utility filings have shown growing connections between projected data-centre demand and decisions to keep ageing generators operating. Reuters reported that utilities were extending the life of fossil-fuel plants and constructing new gas facilities partly to meet demand associated with cloud computing and AI infrastructure.[Reuters]reuters.comMost coal-fired power plants will delay retirement to feed AIMost coal-fired power plants will delay retirement to feed AI…September 25, 2025 — 25 Sept 2025 — Most coal-fired power plants…Published: September 25, 2025

One example came from Mississippi, where Entergy began developing a large natural-gas power station intended to serve major Amazon data-centre developments. Rather than replacing existing fossil generation, the project added new gas capacity to support expanding digital loads.[Reuters]reuters.comshut three mile island nuclear plant may restart 2027 owner saysThree Mile Island nuclear plant reboot fast-tracked to 202726 Jun 2025 — Constellation struck a deal last September to power Microsoft (M…

By 2025 and 2026, the issue became more explicit in parts of the United States. Utility analysts and environmental groups documented cases where generators originally expected to retire remained in operation because forecast electricity demand had changed dramatically. Utility Dive reported that at least 17 fossil-fuel generators scheduled for retirement had delayed closure, while proposed gas build-outs across several southeastern states were increasingly justified by data-centre growth projections.[Utility Dive]utilitydive.comfossil fuel gas coal climate data centersdata centers are responsible for at least 65% of projected load growth. Data centers are also delaying the retirement of fossil fuel powe…

Some policymakers began openly framing ageing coal plants as strategic assets for the AI era. In 2025, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Reuters that the government expected many coal plants nearing retirement to remain online longer because of rapidly rising electricity demand, including demand associated with artificial intelligence.[Reuters]reuters.comDepartment of Energy ​estimates artificial intelligence and data‑center growth will create 50 gigawatts of new electricity demand by…R…

That does not mean every delayed retirement is caused solely by AI. Electrification, manufacturing growth and regional reliability concerns also matter. But AI-driven data centres increasingly appear in utility planning documents and public statements as part of the justification.

Why “temporary backup” can become long-term dependence

Supporters of new data-centre projects often argue that fossil generation is merely a bridge. The claim is that gas turbines or delayed coal retirements provide temporary reliability until more renewables, storage and transmission arrive.

Sometimes that is true. Electricity systems need backup capacity, and sudden load growth can create genuine reliability risks.

The problem is that temporary measures frequently become embedded in long-term infrastructure decisions.

A gas plant built to support near-term demand may operate for decades. A coal plant granted a short extension can receive upgrades, new contracts or political support that make future retirement harder. Transmission delays can stretch for years. Transformer shortages and grid bottlenecks can keep cleaner projects waiting even after financing is secured. Evidence from the data-centre construction boom suggests that power infrastructure constraints have become a major obstacle across multiple regions.[IEA]iea.orgData centre electricity use surged in 2025, even with…16 Apr 2026 — Electricity demand from data centres soared by 17% in 2025, and…

This creates a path dependency problem. Once fossil assets remain economically useful, utilities and investors gain incentives to keep them running. What began as emergency support can become structural dependence.

The difference between reviving fossil plants and reviving low-carbon plants

Not every power-plant revival signals climate backsliding.

One reason the current debate is complicated is that data-centre demand has also helped revive interest in nuclear energy. Microsoft’s agreement with Constellation Energy to restart the closed Three Mile Island Unit 1 reactor became one of the most prominent examples. The project was justified largely by the need for reliable, carbon-free electricity for data centres.[Politico]politico.comConstellation to restart Three Mile Island nuclear plant in deal with MicrosoftThis decision, influenced by the high electricity demand of AI data centers, marks a renewed interest in nuclear energy as a reliable, ca…[The Associated Press]ap.orgThe Associated PressThe AI boom may give Three Mile Island a new life supplying…Sep 20, 2024 — Microsoft wouldn't say which of its dat…

From a climate perspective, reopening a nuclear reactor is very different from extending a coal plant’s life. Both respond to rising electricity demand, but one increases low-carbon generation while the other prolongs emissions.

This distinction matters for evaluating AI’s long-term role in human flourishing. The central question is not whether data centres stimulate investment. They clearly do. The question is what kind of investment they stimulate.

If rising AI demand accelerates new nuclear reactors, renewable projects, transmission networks and energy storage, the clean-power test may ultimately be passed. If it mainly encourages the continued operation of ageing fossil assets, the picture looks very different.

How to tell temporary backup from structural dependence

Several indicators help distinguish a short-term reliability response from a deeper fossil lock-in problem.

Warning signs of structural dependence include:

Signs that fossil use may genuinely be transitional include:

The distinction is important because many corporate climate commitments focus on accounting frameworks, while the atmosphere responds to physical emissions. A fossil plant that remains online for another ten years affects emissions regardless of how renewable certificates are allocated.

What this means for the broader AI abundance story

The fossil-fallback problem does not prove that AI and climate goals are incompatible. It shows that compatibility is conditional.

The strongest versions of the AI bloom vision imagine advanced intelligence helping humanity solve energy scarcity, accelerate clean-technology development, improve scientific discovery and support a civilisation capable of sustaining far higher levels of prosperity. But those outcomes depend on infrastructure choices made during the transition period.

A future in which AI helps design better batteries, optimise electric grids and accelerate fusion or advanced nuclear power looks very different from a future in which rising compute demand repeatedly forces coal and gas plants to remain online.

The immediate risk is not that AI permanently derails decarbonisation. It is that electricity demand grows faster than clean supply, creating years of additional fossil dependence precisely when many countries were expecting emissions to fall. Reuters reporting, utility filings and grid analyses increasingly point to that tension: digital expansion is moving at software speed, while clean-energy systems still expand at infrastructure speed. Reuters[IEA]iea.orgData centre electricity use surged in 2025, even with…16 Apr 2026 — Electricity demand from data centres soared by 17% in 2025, and…

That makes delayed fossil retirements one of the clearest practical tests of whether AI’s infrastructure build-out is genuinely adding clean power or merely consuming it. The answer will shape not only emissions trajectories but also whether the material foundations of an AI-enabled flourishing future are being strengthened or weakened.

Amazon book picks

Further Reading

Books and field guides related to Will AI revive old fossil power plants?. Use these as the next step if you want deeper reading beyond the article.

Book

How the World Really Works

By Vaclav Smil

Explains why rapid demand growth can keep fossil fuels in the system despite clean-energy ambitions.

See on Amazon

Book

Speed & Scale

By John Doerr

Frames the need for rapid clean-energy deployment to avoid locking in emissions.

See on Amazon

Book

The Grid

By Gretchen Bakke

Explains why existing power plants can become fallback options when grids face new load.

See on Amazon

Book

The New Map

By Daniel Yergin

Shows how fossil infrastructure, energy security and demand pressures shape transition choices.

See on Amazon

Browse more on Amazon:How the World Really WorksSpeed & ScaleThe Grid

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Endnotes

1. Source: reuters.com
Title: Data-center reliance on fossil fuels may delay clean
Link:https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/how-ai-cloud-computing-may-delay-transition-clean-energy-2024-11-21/

Published: November 26, 2024

2. Source: reuters.com
Title: Most coal-fired power plants will delay retirement to feed AI
Link:https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-urges-utilities-keep-coal-fired-plants-running-ai-demand-booms-energy-2025-09-25/

Published: September 25, 2025

3. Source: iea.org
Link:https://www.iea.org/news/data-centre-electricity-use-surged-in-2025-even-with-tightening-bottlenecks-driving-a-scramble-for-solutions

4. Source: politico.com
Title: Constellation to restart Three Mile Island nuclear plant in deal with Microsoft
Link:https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/20/constellation-nuclear-plant-deal-microsoft-00180218

5. Source: reuters.com
Title: shut three mile island nuclear plant may restart 2027 owner says 2025 06 25
Link:https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/shut-three-mile-island-nuclear-plant-may-restart-2027-owner-says-2025-06-25/

6. Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/how-ai-boom-derailed-cleanair-efforts-one-americas-most-polluted-cities-2026-04-10/

7. Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/delayed-transmission-projects-blocking-speedy-three-mile-island-restart-2026-04-06/

8. Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-may-decide-three-mile-island-restart-june-constellation-execs-say-2026-05-11/

9. Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/microsoft-may-shelve-2030-clean-energy-target-ai-lifts-power-use-bloomberg-news-2026-05-06/

10. Source: reuters.com
Title: us power use beat record highs 2026 2027 ai use surges eia says 2026 05 12
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-power-use-beat-record-highs-2026-2027-ai-use-surges-eia-says-2026-05-12/

11. Source: reuters.com
Title: europes old power plants get digital makeover driven by ai boom 2025 08 05
Link:https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/europes-old-power-plants-get-digital-makeover-driven-by-ai-boom-2025-08-05/

12. Source: reuters.com
Title: constellation energy beats profit estimates strong [power demand]({{ ‘power-demand/’ | relative_url }}) 2026 02 24
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/constellation-energy-beats-profit-estimates-strong-power-demand-2026-02-24/

13. Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/constellation-ask-regulators-help-speeding-up-three-mile-island-nuclear-power-2026-03-31/

14. Source: reuters.com
Title: big tech shifts all above strategy power ai reeii 2025 12 11
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/big-tech-shifts-all-above-strategy-power-ai–reeii-2025-12-11/

15. Source: reuters.com
Title: Read more
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-loans-constellation-1-billion-three-mile-island-reactor-reboot-2025-11-18/

16. Source: reuters.com
Title: Time to go nuclear?
Link:https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/time-go-nuclear-inside-battle-power-ai–ecmii-2025-12-17/

17. Source: reuters.com
Title: us targets 5 gw more nuclear power through low cost finance reeii 2026 04 21
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-targets-5-gw-more-nuclear-power-through-low-cost-finance–reeii-2026-04-21/

18. Source: reuters.com
Title: constellation inks power supply deal with microsoft 2024 09 20
Link:https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/constellation-inks-power-supply-deal-with-microsoft-2024-09-20/

19. Source: reuters.com
Title: meta signs power agreement with constellation nuclear plant 2025 06 03
Link:https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/meta-signs-power-agreement-with-constellation-nuclear-plant-2025-06-03/

20. Source: reuters.com
Title: Prices paid to power
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ai-data-centers-are-forcing-obsolete-peaker-power-plants-back-into-service-2025-12-23/

21. Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ceraweek-constellation-exec-says-grid-operator-told-company-three-mile-island-2026-03-26/

22. Source: reuters.com
Title: us nuclear plants wont power up big techs ai ambitions right away 2024 09 24
Link:https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/us-nuclear-plants-wont-power-up-big-techs-ai-ambitions-right-away-2024-09-24/

23. Source: utilitydive.com
Title: fossil fuel gas coal climate data centers
Link:https://www.utilitydive.com/news/fossil-fuel-gas-coal-climate-data-centers/753565/

24. Source: ap.org
Link:https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2024/the-ai-boom-may-give-three-mile-island-a-new-life-supplying-power-to-microsofts-data-centers/

Additional References

25. Source: facebook.com
Link:https://www.facebook.com/deutschewellenews/posts/ai-has-moved-so-fast-from-niche-technology-to-mass-infrastructure-that-its-elect/1355483566606954/

26. Source: environmentamerica.org
Link:https://environmentamerica.org/center/resources/fossil-fuel-power-plants-are-staying-online-longer/

27. Source: linkedin.com
Link:https://www.linkedin.com/posts/laila-kearney-22332819_exclusive-constellation-exec-says-grid-operator-activity-7443309225742635008-Jrfi

28. Source: boereport.com
Link:https://boereport.com/2025/09/25/us-urges-utilities-to-keep-coal-fired-plants-running-as-ai-demand-booms-energy-secretary-says/

29. Source: kfgo.com
Link:https://kfgo.com/2025/09/25/us-urges-utilities-to-keep-coal-fired-plants-running-as-ai-demand-booms-energy-secretary-says/

30. Source: datacenterdynamics.com
Title: us govt looks to extend life of coal plants to meet ai data center demand
Link:https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/us-govt-looks-to-extend-life-of-coal-plants-to-meet-ai-data-center-demand/

31. Source: youtube.com
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3QNeVRlth8

32. Source: me.smenet.org
Title: how ai and cloud computing may delay the transition to clean energy
Link:https://me.smenet.org/how-ai-and-cloud-computing-may-delay-the-transition-to-clean-energy/

33. Source: grist.org
Title: georgia was about to retire coal plants then came the data cen
Link:https://grist.org/energy/georgia-was-about-to-retire-coal-plants-then-came-the-data-cen/

34. Source: americanactionforum.org
Title: ai data center power surge shifting trends toward natural gas
Link:https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/ai-data-center-power-surge-shifting-trends-toward-natural-gas/

Published: May 2026