Within Long Future
Who gets to own the space future?
The promise of space settlement depends on institutions that prevent new worlds from becoming extensions of old inequalities.
On this page
- Access, ownership and settlement rights
- Earth settlement power imbalances
- Intergenerational stewardship beyond Earth
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Introduction
If humanity eventually builds permanent settlements on the Moon, Mars, orbital habitats or elsewhere in the Solar System, one of the hardest questions will not be technical. It will be political: who gets to decide how these places are governed, who is allowed to live there, who owns valuable resources, and who benefits from the wealth and opportunities created beyond Earth.
The optimistic vision behind space settlement is often linked to a much larger future of human flourishing. Advanced AI, robotics and automation could make it easier to build habitats, manage life-support systems and use local resources, potentially allowing civilisation to expand far beyond Earth’s limits. But technical success alone would not determine whether that future is broadly shared. The institutions built around settlement could create new opportunities for billions of people, or they could concentrate power among a small number of states, corporations and early settlers. The governance choices made during the first stages of space expansion may shape human society for centuries.[NASA]nasa.govArtemis AccordsThe Artemis Accords provide a common set of principles to enhance the governance of the civil exploration and use of o…[ScienceDirect]sciencedirect.comTowards earth-space governance in a multi-planetary eraby XS Yap · 2023 · Cited by 32 — We propose a new governance model, e…
Who gets to own the space future?
One reason debates about space settlement have become more urgent is that existing space law was designed before anyone expected large-scale resource extraction or permanent settlements.
The central legal document is the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. It states that outer space is the “province of all mankind” and that no nation can claim sovereignty over the Moon, Mars or other celestial bodies. Yet the treaty does not clearly explain how property rights, mining operations or long-term settlements should work in practice. As governments and companies move closer to extracting lunar water, metals or other resources, lawyers and policymakers increasingly disagree about where the boundaries lie.[iisl.space]iisl.spaceKC Category – Space ResourcesIn considering the concept of “space resources,” the Outer Space Treaty offers internal contradiction. Firs…
This ambiguity creates a fundamental tension.
On one side are those who argue that settlements need strong property rights and economic incentives. Building cities beyond Earth will require enormous investments, and investors may be unwilling to fund them without confidence that resources and infrastructure can be legally controlled. Supporters of this view often favour frameworks that allow companies and states to extract and profit from space resources.[cjil.uchicago.edu]cjil.uchicago.edu“Who Dares, Wins:” How Property Rights in Space Could…13 Jun 2022 — The Accords make clear that extraction is not outlawed as national…
On the other side are those who worry that a “first come, first served” model could reproduce familiar patterns from Earth’s history. If only a handful of wealthy nations and firms can reach valuable locations first, they may gain disproportionate control over future economic activity, locking in inequalities before broader participation becomes possible. Critics frequently draw comparisons with colonial expansion, enclosure of common lands and unequal access to strategic resources. Springer Link[sites]sites.temple.eduSites The Aftermath of the Artemis Accords: Power DynamicsAftermath of the Artemis Accords: Power Dynamics…May 1, 2025 — The Artemis Accords, led by the United States, reinforce a privatized… The disagreement is not simply about law. It is about whether space becomes a shared civilisational project or another arena where existing power structures extend outward.
Access, ownership and settlement rights
A practical governance system must answer several questions that remain largely unresolved.
Who can settle?
Will future settlements be open to people from many countries, or effectively controlled by sponsoring states and corporations? Early space habitats are likely to be extremely expensive, meaning access may initially depend on wealth, citizenship, employment or specialised skills. Without deliberate policies, participation could be highly exclusive.
Who controls resources?
Water ice on the Moon, for example, may become strategically important because it can support life and be converted into rocket fuel. Some locations could be far more valuable than others. Competition over access to these areas may become a defining governance challenge.[RAND Corporation]rand.orggovernance in space mining the moon and beyondRAND CorporationGovernance in Space: Mining the Moon and Beyond18 Nov 2022 — Space mining is subject to relatively little existing policy…
Can land be owned?
Current treaties prohibit national appropriation of celestial bodies, but they leave many questions about private rights unanswered. Some legal interpretations argue that extracted resources can be owned even if territory itself cannot. Others fear this distinction could become a pathway toward de facto territorial control.[iisl.space]iisl.spaceKC Category – Space ResourcesIn considering the concept of “space resources,” the Outer Space Treaty offers internal contradiction. Firs…[Polytechnique Insights]polytechnique-insights.comPolytechnique InsightsPrivate property and militarisation: the new frontiers of…28 Oct 2025 — The Outer Space Treaty prohibits soverei…
Who receives economic benefits?[linkedin.com]linkedin.comFostering Socio-Economic Benefits in the Global SouthThe Space Economy Humanity will inevitably expand beyond Earth — developing off-plan…
If asteroid mining or large-scale space industry eventually becomes profitable, should returns flow mainly to investors and sponsoring governments, or should some benefits be distributed more broadly? The question resembles debates over natural resources on Earth, where oil, minerals and fisheries have generated both prosperity and severe inequality depending on governance arrangements.[Taylor & Francis Online]tandfonline.comIn a…Read more…
These issues matter because the earliest rules often become difficult to reverse. Infrastructure, legal precedent and economic networks can create path dependence, allowing initial advantages to compound over time.
The fight between commons and commercial models
Current debates increasingly centre on two broad governance visions.
The first treats space as a global commons. Under this approach, outer space is considered a shared domain whose benefits should ultimately serve humanity as a whole. Advocates often point to language in international treaties describing space as the province of all humankind. They argue for international oversight, benefit-sharing mechanisms and protections against monopolisation.[UNOOSA]unoosa.orgMoon AgreementAgreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. The General Assembly. Reaffirmi…[International Journal of the Commons]thecommonsjournal.orgInternational Journal of the CommonsOuter Space as a Global Commons: An Empirical Study of…by P Pic · 2023 · Cited by 28 — This articl…
The second vision emphasises commercial development. Proponents argue that ambitious settlement will only happen if entrepreneurs, investors and governments can expect meaningful returns. They contend that excessive restrictions could slow development, discourage innovation and leave valuable resources unused for generations.[cjil.uchicago.edu]cjil.uchicago.edu“Who Dares, Wins:” How Property Rights in Space Could…13 Jun 2022 — The Accords make clear that extraction is not outlawed as national…
In practice, most emerging proposals sit somewhere between these extremes.
The Artemis Accords, a framework signed by dozens of countries participating in NASA-led lunar exploration efforts, attempt to establish norms for cooperation, transparency and resource use without creating a comprehensive global property regime. Supporters view them as a practical way to coordinate activity. Critics argue that they may gradually normalise resource extraction rules shaped primarily by leading spacefaring powers rather than through fully inclusive international negotiation.[Sites]sites.temple.eduSites The Aftermath of the Artemis Accords: Power DynamicsAftermath of the Artemis Accords: Power Dynamics…May 1, 2025 — The Artemis Accords, led by the United States, reinforce a privatized…[3NASA 3Cambridge University]cambridge.orgCambridge University Press & AssessmentTHE ARTEMIS ACCORDS: EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION…by R Deplano · 2021 · Cited by 173 — The Artemis A… Press & Assessment](#endnote-10 “Snippet: Cambridge University Press & AssessmentTHE ARTEMIS ACCORDS: EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION…by R Deplano · 2021 · Cited by 173 — The Artemis A”)
The deeper question is whether humanity can create institutions that encourage investment while preventing permanent concentration of control.
Earth-settlement power imbalances
Many governance concerns stem from the fact that access to space is already highly unequal.
Only a small number of countries possess advanced launch capabilities, major space industries or substantial influence over emerging space rules. Wealthy states and corporations therefore enter the space age with enormous advantages. Developing countries often participate primarily as observers rather than agenda-setters.[Sage Journals]journals.sagepub.comSage JournalsA 21st Century Political Economy Research Agenda13 Jan 2026 — Many developing countries and many marginalized communities wi…
This matters because settlements may not be isolated worlds. They could remain economically and politically dependent on Earth for decades.
A lunar mining settlement funded by a corporation might rely on Earth-based ownership structures, supply chains and legal systems. A Martian settlement financed by a consortium of governments might inherit the geopolitical interests of its sponsors. In either case, power could remain concentrated far from the people actually living in the settlement.
Some scholars therefore argue that future settlements should move toward forms of local self-government as they mature. Others warn that rapid independence could create instability, especially if settlements depend on Earth for critical resources. The balance between local autonomy and Earth-based oversight remains largely unresolved.[Springer Link]link.springer.comSpringer LinkArtemis Accords and Resource Mining in Outer SpaceThe book critically examines the potential for space resource mining to pe…
The concern is not merely theoretical. Throughout history, frontier settlements have often developed tensions between distant authorities and local populations. Space settlements could face similar pressures, but under conditions where survival itself depends on tightly managed infrastructure.
Could AI make concentration of power worse?
The AI bloom perspective raises a further governance challenge.
Advanced AI systems could dramatically lower the cost of designing habitats, managing logistics, conducting scientific research and coordinating large-scale industrial activity in space. If these capabilities become widely available, they could help many societies participate in settlement efforts. AI-enabled automation might reduce barriers that today restrict space activity to a handful of powerful actors.
But the opposite outcome is also possible.
If the most advanced AI systems remain controlled by a small number of governments or firms, those organisations could gain extraordinary advantages in space development. Superior AI could accelerate resource mapping, engineering design, autonomous construction and strategic planning, allowing early leaders to pull further ahead. In that scenario, AI would not automatically democratise access to the space future; it could amplify existing asymmetries.[ScienceDirect]sciencedirect.comTowards earth-space governance in a multi-planetary eraby XS Yap · 2023 · Cited by 32 — We propose a new governance model, e…
This is one reason governance questions about AI and governance questions about space settlement increasingly overlap. The distribution of intelligence, not only the distribution of material resources, may shape who benefits from expansion beyond Earth.
Intergenerational stewardship beyond Earth
Space settlement introduces governance timescales far longer than most political institutions currently handle.
A permanent lunar city or orbital habitat might exist for centuries. A self-sustaining Martian civilisation could persist for millennia. Decisions made during early settlement phases may therefore affect countless future generations who have no voice in present debates.
This raises questions rarely encountered in ordinary politics.
Should future settlers inherit constitutional protections that cannot easily be removed? How should settlements balance adaptation with preservation of founding principles? What obligations do present generations have to leave future communities access to resources rather than exhausting the most valuable sites immediately?
The 1979 Moon Agreement attempted to address some of these concerns by describing lunar resources as the “common heritage of mankind” and envisioning future international arrangements for their management. However, major spacefaring powers never adopted the treaty, limiting its practical influence.[UNOOSA]unoosa.orgMoon AgreementAgreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. The General Assembly. Reaffirmi…[Council on Foreign Relations]cfr.orgartemis accords and next generation outer space governanceCouncil on Foreign RelationsThe Artemis Accords and the Next Generation of Outer…Jun 2, 2020 — This treaty has been controversial beca…
More recent proposals include resource royalties, protected scientific zones, limits on exclusive control of strategic locations and governance structures inspired by management of shared terrestrial resources. Some researchers argue that space should be governed less as a territory to be divided and more as a long-term commons requiring stewardship across generations. International Journal of the Commons[Belfer Center]belfercenter.orgspace cop governanceGoverning Outer Space: A Conference of the Parties for…8 Dec 2025 — In this context, this paper proposes a new solution to make progre…
The challenge is to create institutions that allow growth while preserving opportunities for people who may live hundreds of years in the future.
The strongest arguments for broad benefit-sharing
Advocates of inclusive governance usually make several related arguments.
First, they argue that space development builds on generations of publicly funded science and infrastructure. Because taxpayers worldwide contributed to much of the knowledge that made modern spaceflight possible, benefits should not flow exclusively to a narrow group of actors.
Second, they point out that many space resources exist in environments that no individual or company created. Valuable lunar ice deposits or asteroid minerals are not the product of private effort alone, creating a moral case for some form of shared benefit.
Third, supporters of broader distribution argue that legitimacy matters. If large parts of the world come to see space expansion as a project serving only wealthy countries or corporations, political support for long-term settlement could weaken. More inclusive governance may therefore be important not only ethically but strategically. Taylor & Francis Online[Frontiers]frontiersin.orgAssessing benefits and risks between the space…by T Cernev · 2024 · Cited by 7 — This paper presents the findings from an expert elici…
Possible mechanisms include:
- International resource royalties directed toward scientific research or global development.
- Open scientific access requirements for publicly funded missions.
- Shared infrastructure programmes that reduce barriers for emerging space nations.
- Settlement charters guaranteeing civil and political rights.
- Limits on monopolisation of critical locations and resources.
- Representation for future generations in long-term governance institutions.
None of these proposals has achieved broad consensus, but they illustrate how governance choices could influence whether space settlement becomes widely beneficial or narrowly concentrated.
Why governance may matter as much as rockets
The most optimistic visions of humanity’s long future imagine civilisation spreading beyond Earth, supported by advanced AI, abundant energy, automated industry and expanding scientific knowledge. In that future, space settlement is not merely an engineering achievement. It becomes a question about what kind of civilisation humanity chooses to build.
The central governance challenge is not whether humans can eventually live beyond Earth. It is whether new settlements become extensions of existing inequalities or opportunities to create institutions that distribute power, security and opportunity more broadly.
If future settlements remain dominated by a small number of states, firms or elites, the benefits of expansion could be concentrated despite extraordinary technological progress. If governance evolves toward wider participation, stronger stewardship and more inclusive access, then space settlement could contribute to the larger AI bloom vision: a future in which humanity’s growing capabilities enlarge the scope of flourishing rather than merely the scale of power.[RAND Corporation]rand.orggovernance in space mining the moon and beyondRAND CorporationGovernance in Space: Mining the Moon and Beyond18 Nov 2022 — Space mining is subject to relatively little existing policy…[3ScienceDirect 3Taylor]sciencedirect.comTowards earth-space governance in a multi-planetary eraby XS Yap · 2023 · Cited by 32 — We propose a new governance model, e… & Francis Online](#endnote-16 “Snippet: In a…Read more”)
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Endnotes
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